Singapore's HDB resale market continues to climb at a measured pace, but the composition of that climb has shifted. Our hedonic factor model — a rolling cross-sectional regression on data.gov.sg resale transactions — shows the Baseline Market up +1.6% in the twelve months to September 2025, while age-related repricing has done most of the heavy lifting. Below we unpack the factor decomposition through the latest clean data window (we exclude the noisy two-to-three-month tail).
The 12-month picture is dominated by Log Building Age, which added +4.9% on a quality-adjusted basis — older flats have been repriced higher relative to newer stock, a reversal of the discount that typically attaches to remaining-lease decay. Room Density contributed +3.5%, reflecting buyer preference shifts across unit configurations. Meanwhile Age Deviation Squared printed -1.1%, indicating that the curvature of the age-price relationship flattened over the year.
| Factor | 12-month return | 3-month return | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline Market | +1.6% | +0.4% | Quality-adjusted market-wide level, still grinding higher |
| Log Building Age | +4.9% | +2.0% | Older-flat premium continues to widen |
| Room Density | +3.5% | -1.8% | Strong YoY but a sharp Q3 reversal |
| Location Premium | -0.4% | +0.0% | Spatial pricing essentially flat |
| Age Deviation Squared | -1.1% | +0.4% | Non-linear age curvature easing |
| Non-linear Floor Area | -0.5% | +0.0% | Size-curvature contribution muted |
| High Floor (15+) | +0.1% | -0.0% | Stack premium broadly stable |
Since the dataset began in 2017, Log Building Age has now compounded to +24.8% — running essentially in lockstep with the Baseline Market's +24.6%. That parity is itself notable: in a market where remaining-lease anxiety has been a recurring theme, the model says the age coefficient has trended in the opposite direction. The +2.0% three-month print to September 2025 confirms this is an active, ongoing repricing — not a base effect.
Room Density is the most volatile factor in the Singapore model. It posted +3.5% across the twelve months but gave back -1.8% in the latest three-month window. The cumulative-since-start figure remains slightly negative at -0.7%, underscoring that this is a high-frequency rotation factor rather than a structural driver.
Location Premium (-0.4% YoY, +0.0% over three months) and Price Tier (-0.1% YoY) are both inside noise bands. The cumulative-since-2017 contributions of +0.9% and -1.1% respectively reinforce that, after controlling for age and configuration, the spatial and tier dimensions of the HDB market have been remarkably stable. The granular floor-position factors — Low Floor and High Floor — are similarly negligible at the 12-month horizon.
The HDB resale story for the year to September 2025 is less about a market-wide rally — Baseline Market added only +1.6% — and more about which attributes the market is paying up for. Older flats and certain room configurations are being repriced; spatial premium and price tier are essentially dormant. For analysts, that means a headline median-price index will materially understate the dispersion happening underneath.
Interactive charts for every factor, updated monthly.
Open Singapore Factors →Methodology: monthly cross-sectional OLS of log price per sqm on flat characteristics over a rolling 3-month window, using data.gov.sg HDB resale transactions from 2017 onward. Full specification at about.