Singapore's combined HDB Resale and URA Private market extended its 2025 recovery through the first four months of 2026. Our hedonic factor model — a rolling cross-sectional regression on log(price/sqm) — shows the Baseline Market up +6.5% year-on-year to April 2026, with +5.0% concentrated in just the last three months. Underneath that headline, the biggest structural move is a sharp repricing of building age: older stock is regaining ground it had lost through 2024.
The Baseline Market factor — the intercept of the monthly regression, representing the quality-adjusted price of a like-for-like Singapore home — is now +27.0% above its 2021 starting level. The 12-month print of +6.5% is a clear step up from the flatter 2024 window, and the 3-month figure of +5.0% shows most of that came recently, driven by a strong March 2026 reading (+5.5% for the month alone). We exclude the very latest points from any single-number claim, but the trajectory into April is unambiguously upward.
The Building Age (log) factor fell -4.7% over the last twelve months and -4.0% in the last three. Because the coefficient loads on log-age, a negative return means older properties are pricing higher relative to newer ones after controlling for size, floor, and segment — a partial unwind of the lease-decay discount that widened through 2024. This is the dominant repricing story in Singapore right now, and it has moved further than any other non-Baseline factor.
The Non-linear Floor Area (60sqm) factor added +1.0% year-on-year and +0.9% in the last three months, extending its cumulative gain to +5.6% since 2021 — mid-size units continue to price at a premium relative to the ends of the size curve. The Private vs Public segment factor added +1.1% over three months, suggesting a mild widening of the private premium after a flat 2024. Floor Level, Large Unit, Landed and High Floor factors all moved less than 1% over the year — genuinely quiet.
| Factor | 12-month return | 3-month return | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline Market | +6.5% | +5.0% | Quality-adjusted market-wide repricing, accelerating into Q2 2026. |
| Building Age (log) | -4.7% | -4.0% | Older stock catching up — lease-decay discount narrowing. |
| Non-linear Floor Area (60sqm) | +1.0% | +0.9% | Mid-size units holding a small premium. |
| Private vs Public (segment) | +0.5% | +1.1% | Private premium widening modestly in recent months. |
| High Floor (15+) | +0.6% | +0.2% | Small positive tilt to high-floor units. |
| Landed Property | +0.0% | -0.2% | Effectively flat once size and age are stripped out. |
The chart below shows cumulative returns for the five most active non-Baseline factors, rebased to 0% at June 2021. Note the Building Age line's sharp 2024 rise and 2025–26 reversal — that is the structural story.
Two things stand out heading into the second half of 2026. First, whether Building Age continues its reversal — a further 2–3% narrowing would meaningfully compress the pricing gap between older HDB flats and newer private stock. Second, whether the Baseline Market's 3-month pace of +5.0% annualises: that would imply an unusually strong 2026, well above the 2021–2025 average. We'll revisit both in the September update, once the current tail months have washed through the rolling window.
Interactive charts for every factor, updated monthly.
Open Singapore Factors →Methodology: monthly cross-sectional OLS on log(price/sqm) with a rolling 3-month window over HDB Resale (data.gov.sg) and URA Private transactions. Full details on the methodology page.