The latest DVF cross-section through April 2025 shows a Paris market that is still digesting the 2024 correction. The Baseline Market — the quality-adjusted price level after stripping out floor area, location, energy rating and construction period — has rebounded over the most recent quarter, but on a 12-month basis it remains in negative territory. Meanwhile, Log Floor Area continues to be the most volatile small-magnitude factor, swinging sharply through early 2025.
Over the 12 months to April 2025, the Baseline Market returned -3.6%, confirming that the quality-adjusted Paris price level was lower than a year earlier. The rebound is recent: over the most recent three months (January 2025 → April 2025), Baseline Market posted +3.5%, driven by two consecutive monthly log returns above 2% in March and April.
Log Floor Area moved the other way. On a 12-month view it printed -3.2%, and the 3-month figure deepened to -5.7% — the steepest 3-month contraction for this factor in the seven-year window. In plain terms: the per-sqm premium attached to size has compressed, meaning larger units are being repriced relative to smaller ones at the basket-mean floor area.
| Factor | 12-month return | 3-month return | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline Market | -3.6% | +3.5% | Quality-adjusted level still down YoY, but rebounding into spring 2025. |
| Log Floor Area | -3.2% | -5.7% | Size premium compressing sharply; larger units repricing down. |
| GES Score | +0.3% | +1.2% | Energy-rating premium widening modestly — better GES grades pulling ahead. |
| Sqm per Room | +1.9% | +0.5% | Layout efficiency premium: bigger rooms per unit continue to bid up. |
| Location Premium | +0.1% | +0.2% | Cross-arrondissement spread essentially flat over both windows. |
| Price Tier | -0.0% | +0.0% | No meaningful tier dispersion this cycle. |
| Construction Period | -0.0% | -0.0% | Haussmann-vs-modern spread unchanged. |
GES Score — the French greenhouse-gas rating embedded as a linear factor — added +1.2% over the last three months and +0.3% over the trailing year. The cumulative since 2017 is only +0.7%, but the recent acceleration is consistent with the staged tightening of letting rules for the worst-rated units. The signal is small in monthly magnitude but directionally steady.
One of the more striking patterns in the Paris data: Sqm per Room (+1.9% YoY, +1.9% cumulative since dataset start) has done more for prices than the arrondissement-level Location Premium (+0.1% YoY, +0.8% cumulative). Buyers are paying for fewer, larger rooms — not for postcode reshuffling. The arrondissement map, in factor-model terms, has been remarkably static.
The chart isolates the four small-magnitude factors. Note how Log Floor Area accumulated a strong run from late 2022 into mid-2024 before turning sharply lower in the last three prints — the recent leg is what drives the -5.7% three-month figure.
Baseline Market peaked in early 2022 and has drifted lower since, with the deepest single-month drop (-4.9%) in May 2024. The two strong prints in March and April 2025 (+2.2% each) are the clearest sign of stabilisation in nearly a year — though, per house rules, we caveat the most recent month given rolling-window noise.
Interactive charts for every factor, updated monthly.
Open Paris Factors →Methodology: monthly cross-sectional OLS of log(price/sqm) on property characteristics over a rolling 3-month DVF window; factor returns are X·Δβ. Full details at About.