Our June 2026 update covers the Paris factor model through October 2025, the most recent month with a fully settled 3-month rolling window. The headline: the quality-adjusted Baseline Market is up +5.8% year-on-year, but Log Floor Area is dragging -5.2% over the same period — meaning Paris buyers are paying noticeably less per square metre of additional space than they were a year ago, while the constant-quality price level has bounced. Price Tier and Location Premium are essentially flat. The data source is DVF (Demandes de Valeurs Foncières), 2017–present.
| Factor | 12-month return | 3-month return | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline Market | +5.8% | +5.5% | Quality-adjusted Paris price level — almost the entire 12-month move occurred in the last quarter. |
| Log Floor Area | -5.2% | -4.1% | The price-per-extra-square-metre slope continues to compress; larger flats are getting cheaper relative to small ones. |
| Price Tier | -0.1% | -0.1% | No meaningful spread move between premium and mainstream segments. |
| Location Premium | -0.1% | -0.2% | Inter-arrondissement gradient unchanged — central Paris is not pulling away from the periphery. |
For most of 2023 and 2024 the Baseline Market was bleeding lower — cumulative dataset return still sits at -3.9%. What changed in 2025 is the slope. June and October 2025 alone printed monthly log returns above +2.6% and +3.1% respectively, and the 3-month figure (+5.5%) accounts for nearly all of the 12-month gain (+5.8%). In other words, the recovery is recent and concentrated, not a slow grind.
Log Floor Area is the most informative Paris factor right now. It is down -4.1% over the last 3 months and -5.2% year-on-year, and the cumulative-since-2017 return is -5.1% — almost all of that damage has happened in the last 12 months. Mechanically, this means the price gradient with size has flattened: a buyer paying for an extra 10 m² in 2025 captures less premium than in 2024. In an arrondissement structure where small Haussmann two-rooms compete with larger family flats, this is the kind of move that quietly reshapes who can transact where.
Both Price Tier (-0.1% over 12m, -0.1% over 3m) and Location Premium (-0.1% over 12m, -0.2% over 3m) are flat to the third decimal. There is no evidence of a flight to prime arrondissements, and no evidence of the periphery catching up either. The Baseline rebound is broad-based across Paris geography, not a story about the 6th or 16th outperforming the 19th or 20th.
Small-magnitude factors are plotted together; the Baseline Market gets its own panel because its swings are an order of magnitude larger.
Two things matter into the next print. First, whether the Baseline Market's late-2025 acceleration (+5.5% in three months) holds or mean-reverts — large monthly prints like October 2025's +3.1% are unusual in the Paris series and the last 2–3 months always carry rolling-window noise. Second, whether Log Floor Area stabilises; another quarter at the -4% pace would put the cumulative size-gradient discount near double digits and start to reshape relative pricing between studios and family flats.
Interactive charts for every factor, updated monthly.
Open Paris Factors →Methodology: rolling 3-month cross-sectional OLS of log price per m² on property characteristics, DVF transactions 2017–present. Full specification at about.