The Paris factor model (DVF data, rolling 3-month cross-sectional OLS) shows a market that has stopped falling. The Baseline Market — our quality-adjusted, city-wide price level — is down 2.1% over the twelve months to October 2025, but has recovered +3.5% in the most recent three-month window (July–October 2025). Underneath that headline, the hedonic factors tell a more nuanced story about which segments are actually repricing.
Since the dataset opened in 2017, the Baseline Market has compounded to -10.0%. Most of that damage was concentrated in 2022–2024, when rate normalisation and tighter mortgage conditions repeatedly punched the quality-adjusted level lower. The Oct 2024 → Oct 2025 return of -2.1% is materially smaller than the drawdowns of the prior two years, and the +3.5% three-month print is the first sustained positive move in the recent record. We would flag the usual caveat: the last two to three months are noisy because the rolling window has not fully seasoned.
The GES Emissions Rating factor — which captures how the market prices greenhouse-gas performance under France's DPE regime — has swung from a persistent drag to a modest positive. Over the last twelve months it contributed +1.5%, versus a near-flat +0.1% cumulative since 2017. In the latest three months it is essentially flat (+0.1%). This is consistent with the market having largely absorbed the discount on higher-emission stock, with buyers no longer widening the gap against better-rated units at the same pace they did in 2023–2024.
Non-linear Floor Area (100sqm) added +1.4% year-on-year, though it gave back -0.6% over the last three months — suggesting the premium for larger apartments cooled slightly heading into autumn. Room Size (sqm per room), which isolates the value of more generous rooms at a given total surface, was the weakest factor over the recent quarter at -1.5%, and is broadly flat over twelve months (-0.1%). Smaller, more efficiently subdivided units have held up marginally better than airy layouts in the most recent print.
Location Premium (arrondissement-level desirability) contributed -0.2% YoY and -0.2% over three months — essentially inert. Price Tier is similarly quiet at -0.1% YoY. The polarisation trades that dominated 2021–2022 have flattened; the current move is a broad-based Baseline recovery rather than a rotation between prime and mid-market arrondissements.
| Factor | 12-month return | 3-month return | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline Market | -2.1% | +3.5% | Correction slowing; recent quarter positive |
| GES Emissions Rating | +1.5% | +0.1% | Energy discount stabilising |
| Non-linear Floor Area (100sqm) | +1.4% | -0.6% | Larger-unit premium cooled recently |
| Price Tier | -0.1% | -0.1% | No tier rotation |
| Location Premium | -0.2% | -0.2% | Arrondissement spread inert |
| Room Size (sqm per room) | -0.1% | -1.5% | Airier layouts softened last quarter |
The chart below shows the five hedonic factors (ex-Baseline) rebased to 0% at July 2020. Baseline Market is plotted separately underneath because its swings are an order of magnitude larger.
Interactive charts for every factor, updated monthly.
Open Paris Factors →Methodology: monthly rolling 3-month cross-sectional OLS of log(price/sqm) on hedonic attributes, using DVF transaction data. Factor returns are X·Δβ contributions rebased to a chosen window. Read more on our methodology page.