The CityDataLab factor model for New York, fit on NYC Department of Finance transaction data through January 2026, shows a market still up year-on-year but cooling into early 2026. The quality-adjusted Baseline Market rose +5.3% over the twelve months to January, yet contracted -2.2% over the most recent three-month window (October 2025 → January 2026). Underneath the headline, the elevator-building premium did most of the recent work — and the small-building / walk-up segment continued its multi-year drag.
Baseline Market — the hedonic intercept, i.e. the price level for a constant-quality unit — is now +104.3% above its 2016 starting point. That cumulative figure flatters a noisy recent path: October 2025 through January 2026 erased 2.2% after a strong summer. This is the cleanest single read on Manhattan-and-outer-boroughs pricing once we strip out shifts in building age, size, location score, and unit count.
The most striking factor move is Elevator Building, which returned +5.3% year-on-year and +5.2% in the last three months alone — essentially all of that factor's 2025 work happened in Q4. In a market where the Baseline is softening, the elevator premium widening tells you buyers are paying up specifically for the doorman/elevator product type relative to walk-ups.
Working the other direction, Residential Units (log) — which captures pricing in larger multi-unit buildings versus smaller ones — fell -4.6% over twelve months and is now -17.8% cumulatively since 2016. Larger residential buildings continue to price at a structural discount per square unit, a pattern visible since the 2020-2021 cycle.
Building Age returned -1.7% YoY and -1.9% in the last three months — older stock losing a sliver of its premium each quarter. Large Building added +1.3% YoY (and +1.1% in Q4 alone). Location Premium and Price Tier are both essentially flat year-on-year (+0.0% and +0.1%), which is itself informative: the geographic and tier dispersion that opened up in 2021-2023 has stopped widening.
| Factor | 12-month return | 3-month return | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline Market | +5.3% | -2.2% | Quality-adjusted price level — positive year, soft quarter. |
| Elevator Building | +5.3% | +5.2% | Doorman/elevator premium widening sharply in Q4 2025. |
| Residential Units (log) | -4.6% | -0.6% | Larger multi-unit buildings still discounted. |
| Building Age | -1.7% | -1.9% | Older stock losing a touch of its premium. |
| Large Building | +1.3% | +1.1% | Large-footprint buildings firming modestly. |
| High-rise Building | -0.4% | -0.2% | High-rise factor flat-to-soft, distinct from elevator premium. |
| Location Premium | +0.0% | +0.1% | Geographic dispersion stable. |
The chart below shows cumulative returns for the six most active small-magnitude factors, rebased to 0% in February 2019. Note how Elevator Building is the standout 2025 mover.
Two threads matter for the next print. First, whether the Elevator Building Q4 surge persists or mean-reverts — a +5.2% three-month move on a factor that has spent years oscillating around zero is unusually large. Second, whether the Baseline Market -2.2% three-month figure deepens or stabilises, given the last two to three months of any rolling-window estimate are inherently noisy and should be weighed accordingly.
Interactive charts for every factor, updated monthly.
Open New York Factors →Methodology: monthly cross-sectional OLS of log(price/sqm) on property characteristics over a rolling 3-month window, fit on NYC Department of Finance transaction data from 2016. Full details on the methodology page.