The latest factor-model run on NYC Department of Finance data, through January 2026, shows a market still positive year-on-year but rolling over at the short end. The Baseline Market — our quality-adjusted citywide price level — returned +6.9% over the 12 months to January 2026, but the most recent 3-month window prints -1.4%. Beneath that headline, the elevator premium has snapped sharply higher and the density discount on large multi-unit buildings has widened.
Baseline Market remains the dominant driver of New York prices, with cumulative repricing of +106.0% since the dataset begins in 2016. The 12-month figure of +6.9% is consistent with the post-2023 recovery trend, but the -1.4% 3-month return is the first clear cooling signal since mid-2025. None of the structural factors are individually large enough to offset a baseline reversal — they describe which properties are repricing, not the overall direction.
The standout factor this cycle is Elevator Building, which has delivered +5.1% over the last 3 months and +4.7% over the last 12 — a striking move for a structural factor whose cumulative return since 2016 is still only -1.0%. The single-month log return of +13.05% in April 2025 dominates this swing and looks like a regime shift in how the market is pricing doorman/elevator stock relative to walk-ups. This is the kind of cross-sectional rotation our model is built to isolate from headline price changes.
Residential Units (log) — the discount applied as a building's unit count rises — extended its slide with a -4.6% 12-month return and -1.1% over the last 3 months. Cumulative repricing on this factor now stands at -17.8% since 2016, the largest negative drift in the model. Buyers continue to pay a relative premium for lower-density product, all else equal. Building Age also weakened (-1.3% YoY, -1.7% 3-month), with older stock losing relative ground.
Several factors barely moved over the past year: Location Premium -0.1%, Price Tier +0.1%, Single-family House +0.0%, Construction Period +0.1% and Recent Construction +0.0%. Large Building added +1.0% YoY and +1.1% over the last 3 months — a mild positive on the institutional end of the market. High-rise Building eased -0.2% YoY.
| Factor | 12-month return | 3-month return | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline Market | +6.9% | -1.4% | Citywide quality-adjusted level still up YoY but cooling at the short end. |
| Elevator Building | +4.7% | +5.1% | Sharp re-rating of doorman/elevator stock vs walk-ups. |
| Residential Units (log) | -4.6% | -1.1% | Density discount continues to widen. |
| Building Age | -1.3% | -1.7% | Older stock losing relative ground. |
| Large Building | +1.0% | +1.1% | Mild positive at the institutional end. |
| High-rise Building | -0.2% | -0.2% | Flat — no clear vertical premium shift. |
| Location Premium | -0.1% | +0.1% | Geographic spread essentially unchanged. |
The chart below shows cumulative repricing for the key structural factors since January 2019, rebased to 0% on that date. Baseline Market is excluded from this view because its magnitude (over 100% cumulative) would flatten everything else; see the separate chart underneath.
Interactive charts for every factor, updated monthly.
Open New York Factors →Methodology: at each month we run a cross-sectional OLS of log(price/sqm) on building characteristics over a rolling 3-month window on NYC Department of Finance data, and track β·X over time. The last 2–3 months are excluded from quoted returns because rolling windows have not fully updated. Full details at about.