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London's energy premium round-tripped. Paris's barely moved.

Both London and Paris have a government-issued energy rating on every property — the UK's EPC band and France's DPE/GES score. Both governments have telegraphed the same direction of regulatory pressure (MEES landlord rules in the UK, the loi Climat phase-out of passoires thermiques in France). You might expect the two markets to price energy efficiency the same way. The data says they very much do not.

Cumulative return on each city's energy-rating coefficient, rebased to 0% at January 2020.

London: bid up, then unwound

London's energy-rating factor (EPC band collapsed to a three-level scale where A/B = +1, C–F = 0, G = −1) ran up through 2022 to a peak of +3.5% — i.e. for a moment the market was paying about 3.5 percentage points more per sqm to step a property up an energy band than it had at the start of 2020. That premium has since round-tripped and then some: cumulative now −3.6%, with the trough at −8.0%. Year-on-year, the factor has returned −4.1%.

The cumulative loss since the model's start in 1995 is −9.8% — the most-negative cumulative factor return in the London model. Whatever the regulatory story, the market is, on net, not paying for it.

Paris: indifference, basically

Paris's GES (greenhouse-gas) coefficient over the same window has barely moved. Range is −1.7% to +0.2%, current cumulative is −0.5%. The latest 12-month return is +0.3% — slightly positive but well within noise. Whatever else can be said about Paris property over the last five years, the GES factor has not been a meaningful return contributor in either direction.

Same regulator-driven incentives, opposite market reaction

MarketFactorCumulative since Jan 2020PeakTrough
LondonEPC rating ({A/B, C–F, G})−3.6%+3.5%−8.0%
ParisGES (greenhouse-gas) linear−0.5%+0.2%−1.7%

One plausible reading: London is a market that trades the regulatory narrative — buyers will bid up A/B-rated stock during periods of regulatory focus (the 2021–22 MEES tightening discussions are a candidate driver of the +3.5% peak), then unwind the trade when enforcement timelines slip or political signals soften. Paris, by contrast, prices the GES band largely as a fixed effect on level — better-rated flats are worth more in absolute terms, but that premium hasn't been re-rated either up or down over the cycle.

A second reading is more mechanical: French DPE methodology was substantially overhauled in 2021 and again in 2024, which may have introduced classification noise that washes out a return signal in either direction. Either way, the practical take-away for analysts comparing the two cities is that energy-rating premium is a London return factor and a Paris level factor.

Footnote on NYC and Singapore

Neither NYC nor Singapore has a directly comparable building-level energy-rating field, so we don't track an energy factor for them. New York's Local Law 97 produces building-level emissions data but it lives outside the DOF transaction dataset; Singapore HDB has BCA Green Mark ratings but they aren't joined to the resale flow. Adding both markets to the four-city panel for this analysis is on the roadmap.

Track each factor in each city

Energy-rating coefficients, p-values, and monthly returns.

Open the global comparison →

Methodology: rolling 3-month cross-sectional OLS of log(price/sqm) on hedonic property characteristics per city. The energy-rating coefficient is the per-band premium on each city's encoding; cumulative return is the geometric change since January 2020. See About for the full spec.