Four cities, four very different stories this cycle. London's Baseline Market has rolled over after a long run of gains, New York pushed through to fresh highs into early 2026, Paris turned positive after a flat year, and Singapore reads sharply lower this month — the first run that folds URA private transactions in alongside HDB resale, which substantially reshaped the model. Below we line up the latest factor-model snapshots side by side and identify which factor moved each market the most.
The Baseline Market — the quality-adjusted, intercept term from our rolling hedonic regression — is the cleanest read on each city's underlying repricing. On the latest available month for each market, New York leads on twelve-month performance at +4.8%, Paris prints +2.6%, London turns down to -2.7%, and Singapore — now spanning both HDB and URA private — sits at -12.5%, the sharpest contraction in the panel.
The three-month picture lines up with the twelve-month read for the first time in several months. New York extends its rally (+5.4%), Paris holds positive (+1.1%), London weakens further (-3.1%), and Singapore deepens (-8.7%). There is no quarter-vs-year reversal in the set this month.
| City | Baseline 12m | Baseline 3m | Biggest 12m factor mover (ex-Baseline) |
|---|---|---|---|
| London | -2.7% | -3.1% | Room Density -1.7% |
| New York | +4.8% | +5.4% | Elevator Building +9.3% |
| Paris | +2.6% | +1.1% | Log Floor Area -1.1% |
| Singapore | -12.5% | -8.7% | Log Building Age +15.5% |
London: with the Baseline finally turning, factor moves are subdued. Room Density is the largest non-baseline contributor at -1.7% over twelve months, joined by Floor Area -1.3%. The House premium adds +1.7% — the only factor moving meaningfully in the other direction — pointing to houses outperforming flats as the broader market softens. This month's refit is also the first to use the fresh GOV.UK EPC drop (2026 certificates included), so the energy-rating signal will be more accurate going forward even though it doesn't move much on the latest twelve months.
New York: Elevator Building dominates at +9.3% over twelve months, the biggest single-factor move anywhere in the panel outside of Singapore. Residential Units (log) is the counter at -5.9% over the year, while Building Age subtracts a further -2.0%. The pattern reinforces what last month already showed: a clear bid for elevator stock in mid-density buildings, with larger multi-unit and older inventory lagging.
Paris: factor moves are tiny — Log Floor Area at -1.1% over twelve months is the largest. With the Baseline modestly positive and only one factor printing more than a full percent, Paris is the calmest market in the panel. The Dec-2025 cutoff on Paris is two months further forward than last month's run, thanks to a new automated DVF + ADEME DPE merge pipeline that replaced the offline script we previously used.
Singapore: this is the first run that includes URA private residential transactions (~129k records) on top of HDB resale (~232k), and the model now reflects a substantially broader market. Log Building Age leads everything else at +15.5% over twelve months and +29.4% cumulatively, with Location Premium adding +9.3% over the year. On the other side Price Tier subtracts -4.9% and Location Premium itself sits -16.9% cumulatively. The Baseline contraction reflects how the combined HDB-plus-private market has priced relative to the quality basket — not a like-for-like fall in HDB prices alone.
Convergence: New York and Paris share the same direction on both horizons — positive twelve-month and positive three-month — pointing to underlying repricing in line with the model's quality basket. London and Singapore line up on the other side, both running negative on both horizons.
Divergence: the headline number is Singapore. Adding URA private to the model pulled the Baseline from a flat reading last month to -12.5% over twelve months this month — not because the HDB-only market collapsed, but because the broader cross-section is being priced differently against the same factor basket. The other striking divergence is the gap between Singapore's Baseline (-12.5%) and its Log Building Age contribution (+15.5%) — the age factor is doing more work than the intercept, the only city where that is true.
Over the aligned May 2020 – April 2025 window, Singapore and New York compounded fastest off the pandemic low. Singapore's curve has a single large step around late 2021 — the first months where URA private transactions overlap thinly with HDB resale on the merged dataset; we cap any single period at ±20pp so it doesn't dominate visually. London peaked mid-2024 and has rolled over since. Paris is the flattest line — its quality-adjusted level has barely moved over five years, which is why even +1.1% in the latest quarter is enough to look like a meaningful turn.
Interactive cross-market comparison, refreshed monthly.
Open the global comparison →Methodology: each city's factor returns come from a rolling 3-month cross-sectional OLS of log(price/sqm) on property characteristics; the intercept is the Baseline Market. The last 2–3 months of each series are excluded from quoted numbers. Full details at about.